CALZAGHE VERSUS HOPKINS : THE BREAKDOWN
Le combat n'a lieu que le 19 Avril 2008, mais les specialistes sont deaj a l'affut. ASLBOXINGCLUB aussi! Preuve, ce debut d'analyse...interessante. A suivre au fil des semaines. Joe Calzaghe will take on Bernard Hopkins at the Thomas and Mack Centre
in Las Vegas on April 19. Calzaghe, 44-0 (32), will make his debut both
in America and at 175 pounds having unified the super-middleweight
division by adding Mikkel Kessler's WBA/WBC titles to his own WBO crown
in November of last year. Hopkins, who is 43, is a former undisputed
middleweight world champion with an impressive 48-4-1 (32) record. The
fight is presented by Golden Boy Promotions, Frank Warren's Sports
Network and Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino.. Now let’s break it down:
Profile: Hopkins had 20 title defenses at middleweight before stepping
up two divisions. He is headed to the Hall of Fame. Calzaghe has been
undefeated for 17 years. With his aggressive, fast-punching style, he
is arguably the best active world champion today. Source_EastSideBoxing.com_By Ted Sares
Une chose est sure, ce combat pourrait etre un des hits de l'annee 2008.
Tous les ingredients sont reunis...
Contrasting styles: Calzaghe uses great punch volume backed by
uncanny ring smarts, great stamina and movement, and takes good
directions from his corner to overwhelm his opponents. While a quasi
slapper rather than a heavy handed puncher, he can slug when he wants
to. However, the one thing hs does better than 99% of the today’s
fighters is that he let’s his hands fly and thereby dictates the
action. And if he senses a weakness, he will exploit it quicker than
you can say “Sugar Ray Leonard.”
Hopkins, like his opponent, has excellent skills, movement, punching
power, shoulder rolls, subtle inside stuff, and versatility (he can
fight aggressively or counterpunch). But it doesn’t stop there. He also
has deceptive hand speed, accurate combinations, old school toughness
and durability, and strength. He is always in top shape, has great
defensive skills, and achieved success at the highest levels of
competition. Bernard Hopkins may be the best throwback fighter in the
game. What more is there to say? If he beats a fighter like Joe
Calzaghe, he will only seal his already firm legacy. As well, he can
alter his style depending on the opponent. If it’s a tired Antonio
Tarver, he will be aggressive using combos and sharp body work to break
him down. If it’s a frustrated “Winky” Wright, he will tie him up and
roughhouse him in-close to take him out of his game. Hopkins is a
genius in the ring and just may be that 1% higher than the very savvy
Calzaghe.
Strategy: If Joe is allowed to fight his fight, he will win a decisive
UD. However, if Bernard fights him like he did against Winky, he will
make it close. Trying to out skill Jermaine Taylor turned out to be a
mistake, though the two decisions could have gone either way. Hopkins
needs to fight Calzaghe differently; he needs to do whatever it takes
to take him out of his game.
Level of opposition: Clearly, “The Executioner” has fought a higher
level including Roy Jones Jr, Jermaine Taylor, Wright, Tarver,
Trinidad, De La Hoya, John David Jackson, Glen Johnson (whom he KOd),
Simon Brown, Robert Allen, Antwun Echols, Howard Eastman, William
Joppy, and many others.
Yes, “The Pride of Wales" beat Mikkel Kessler, Sakio Bika, Jeff Lacey
and an aging Chris Eubank, but many of his opponents have been just
that--opponents. Guys like Mger Mkrtchian, Kabary Salem, Tocker
Pudwill, Evans Ashira and Peter Manfredo Jr. do not compose a
particularly daunting list of fighters.
Intangibles
1) Age: Clearly on Calzaghe’s side. The question here is whether Hopkins, 43,
grows old overnight, as he showed some signs in his fight with Wright.
This is the single most important factor in this bout and Joe’s big edge just
might offset any edge that Hopkins has.
2) Location of fight: Hopkins is the “House Fighter.” Many criticize German
decisions, but are they any worse than those rendered in Las Vegas? Calzaghe, 35, has
never tasted defeat, but then again, he has never fought in Las Vegas.
3) Roughhousing: Here, a head butt in an early clinch can turn the tide in Hopkins’s favor.
He knows all the tricks and “The Prince” has never been in with someone like that,
though Bika’s head can sometimes get in the way. Can it nullify speed and 100-punch-a-
round style?
4) Weight: Joe comes up while Hopkins remains comfortable. That usually favors the guy
who does not come down.
5) Corners: JC’s has never failed him and there is an obvious symbiosis that works
to his advantage. Hopkins sometimes can be stubborn while listening to corner
instructions.
6) Calzaghe’s hands: He has had trouble in the past and if he should injure one early
in the fight, look for Hopkins to exploit it immediately.
7) Hype: Forget it. It’s only done to generate ticket sales, nothing else.
8) The Referee: If it’s a referee like Steve Smoger, advantage will go to Hopkins, but if it’s
one who likes to take early control like Joe Cortez, that will favor Calzaghe.
9) Ring Size: A big ring favors “The Prince” while a smaller one favors Hopkins.
The predicted outcome: Hopkins will make this an ugly fight from the
start and will frustrate the more aggressive Welshman who likes to
swarm his opponents with fast combinations of never-ending punches. The
“Executioner” will try to get “The Prince of Wales” to fight off the
ropes where he can alternate with sharp counters and clinches. In so
doing, he will be warned for low punches and butts and may well lose
points.
By the late rounds, I would not be surprised for the crowd to begin
calling for more action, but these two are too smart to let crowd noise
bother them.
Going into the championship rounds, I believe Calzaghe will hold a
slight lead based on his superior, but less than normal, punch volume.
At this point, Hopkins may simply not have enough left in the tank to
pull it out, but his rough and perhaps even dirty style will put the
outcome it in doubt.
In the end, it likely will boil down to age, age and age offsetting a lot of pro-Hopkins intangibles. I see Calzaghe winning a majority decision, but I would not be surprised by a DRAW.